This August may be among the driest-ever in India | India News – Times of India
“August 2023 could potentially experience around 40% rainfall deficit – higher than the 25% deficit recorded in 2005 (the driest August in history since 1913),” M Rajeevan, veteran meteorologist and former secretary in the Union ministry of earth sciences, said on Saturday.
Rajeevan said the effects of El Nino were already visible in India’s monsoon. “The prolonged break in the monsoon during which rainfall was extremely subdued across most regions of the country are signs of large-scale factors at work. It is a typical impact of El Nino,” Rajeevan said.
Historical data during El Nino years suggests a significant chance of a rain deficit in September in India. “There’s an 87% probability of a deficit of 10% or more and a 47% probability of a deficit of 20% or more in September,” he said.
G P Sharma, Skymet’s vice president, said August 2005, 2009, and 2021 were some of the driest Augusts in the last 18 years. “This year’s August could potentially join that list. The current low-pressure system might shift the monsoon trough towards the Himalayan foothills soon, resulting in good rainfall only for eastern and northeastern India, along with areas near the foothills. This scenario could make August 2023 one of the driest on record,” he said.
India Meteorological Department (IMD) data indicates a current rain deficit of 36% in August in India, with south peninsular India experiencing the most significant shortage at 66%, followed by northwest India at 45%.
Sharma said the ongoing August rain deficit of nearly -36% in India was a rare occurrence, though there were still 12 days till month-end. “Rain deficit for the driest Augusts has ranged between 25% & 26% (2005, 2009, 2015 and 2021),” he added.
In 2009, which was a severe drought year, August rainfall was 192.5mm, while in 2005 it was 190.1mm. From August 1-19 this year, the country’s total rainfall has been at 106.2mm (-36% deficit) as against a normal of 166mm.
Experts said the deviation of monsoon from its usual course could be attributed to the emergence of a robust El Nino phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean. El Nino has a known history of interrupting the monsoon pattern and disrupting the anticipated seasonal rainfall. “The occurrence of a lowpressure region following the ‘break’ typically tends to realign the monsoon back on its intended path. This restores the monsoon trough to its regular position, which during the break tends to be situated along the foothills of the Himalayas. However, the most recent low-pressure system has been an exception to these norms. It failed to fully reestablish the monsoon’s vigor, while there would be another below normal phase for most of India beginning soon,” Sharma said.
