Opinion: Analysis: INDIA Alliance – Split Wide Open?

Just two meetings old, the opposition INDIA alliance is in a state of flux. Parties who joined forces to take on the BJP-led NDA in next year’s national election are struggling to speak the same language.

After a meeting yesterday by Congress chief Mallikarjun Kharge, a party leader claimed that the Congress would contest all seven Lok Sabha seats in Delhi. The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which rules Delhi, said if the Congress had already decided to contest on its own, then there was no point attending the next ‘INDIA’ meeting scheduled in Mumbai on August 31-September 1.

As the Congress disowned its leader’s comments, both parties took a step back.

Delhi minister and AAP leader Gopal Rai clarified: “Congress party specified that statements of some of its leaders were individual remarks. I think some patience is required at present and that there will be a way forward by the next meeting of the INDIA alliance to be held in Mumbai.”

Given their history in Delhi, it is difficult to believe AAP will part with even one seat for the Congress.

The Congress’s vote share was abysmal in the 2019 parliamentary election. Even if AAP agrees to accommodate the Congress, it will likely leave one, at best two seats. It is quite another matter that AAP may not win even a single Lok Sabha seat in Delhi. Despite its Delhi polls sweep, AAP scored a duck in the Lok Sabha election.

However, as INDIA allies, AAP and Congress can have a productive win-win seat-sharing in Punjab, which sends 13 seats to Lok Sabha. Probably, they could also consider collaborating in Haryana.

Even as it spars with AAP over Delhi, the Congress is “concerned” over Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) leader Sharad Pawar’s meetings with nephew Ajit Pawar, who recently rebelled and joined hands with the BJP.

The Congress is pressing for clarification from Sharad Pawar on his meetings with his estranged nephew, now the Deputy Chief Minister of Maharashtra after his coup. Sharad Pawar insists that these are family meetings, and that he will stay with the INDIA alliance and any collaboration with the BJP.

But the Ajit Pawar faction is persistent. As Sharad Pawar went to Beed for a rally today, banners urging him to “bless” his nephew welcomed him to the city.

Sharad Pawar’s team calls it a family affair. That defence can only go so far.  

Political analyst Javed M Ansari says these are minor wrinkles.

“The AAP and Congress’s misunderstandings have been blown out of proportion. It is simply posturing and bargaining for more seats. In Maharashtra, I don’t believe that Sharad Pawar will do a somersault and join the BJP or his nephew. If he had to join hands with the BJP, nobody could have stopped him,” Mr Ansari said.

That is hardly any consolation for the INDIA alliance or the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) comprising the NCP, Congress, and the Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray) in Maharashtra. Sharad Pawar’s moves are making his allies nervous.

When the INDIA alliance meets in Mumbai later this month, the Congress is waiting to raise with Sharad Pawar his regular meetings with Ajit Pawar. Sources say the Congress has come to entertain serious doubts about the NCP. They have questions even for NCP leader Supriya Sule (Sharad Pawar’s daughter), who has firmly denied any emerging deal with the BJP. The friction within the Maharashtra opposition, just days before the third INDIA outing in Mumbai, is potentially disastrous for the Congress and the opposition bloc.

In the east, the feud within the Congress-Left-TIPRA Motha alliance could impact its fight against the BJP in assembly by-elections on September 5.

Former Congress chief of Tripura, Birajit Sinha, is vocal about discontent in the party after the Left unilaterally announced its candidates for two seats – Boxanagar and Dhanpur – without consulting allies. “This is a test of the management skills of the Congress, Left, and all the other constituents of the INDIA alliance. These are different political parties and each of them wants the best for themselves. So, these issues will be there. It’s not uncommon for parties to jostle for seats just a day two prior to elections,” says Javed Ansari.   

The Congress-Left alliance has meaning and substance only in Bengal and Tripura. In Bengal, they fought as allies in 2019, so striking an acceptable deal should not be an insurmountable problem. In Tripura, the two seats can be shared 50:50. Both parties will bargain for the best possible deals. In Kerala, the Left and the Congress will fight separately and there is no question of them even considering seat-sharing talks.

We might see more posturing and vacillations in the run-up to the 2024 election. Preliminary disagreements may boomerang for the alliance closer to the elections.

INDIA needs a mature leader and a solid narrative that is common, and not inimical, to the parties in the alliance, if it has to survive until these elections and beyond.

As of now, the catalyst seems to be missing.

(Bharti Mishra Nath is a senior journalist)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author.